Abstract
Environmentally Sensitive Areas (ESAs) have come to take a central place in agri-environmental policy. An important evaluation of the scheme has sought to estimate the value of two ESAs using the contingent valuation method. This paper assesses this evaluation and argues that in practice the method failed to establish a clear and realistic description of the likely outcome of the policy. In a number of respects, the evaluation assumes that the policy will be successful prior to the analysis. These concerns are supported by the evidence available from monitoring studies. In consequence the evaluation is of limited use for the purposes of policy decision-making. There is a need to define the likely outcomes of policy more realistically, recognising the inevitable uncertainty, and to investigate the values of conservation at the margin in order to make such evaluations more relevant to policy development.