Abstract
Since the mid-twentieth century, warming in mountain regions has outpaced the global rate, with important regional implications for snowpacks and the ski industry. Recent climate litigation by communities in the State of Colorado signals the need to assess how observed changes in climate may have damaged the ski industry. This study presents a novel application of the SkiSim2.0 ski operations model at 226 ski areas across 4 US regional ski markets to assess what the ski industry could have looked like if post-1970s anthropogenic climate change had not occurred. Relative to 1960-1979, modelled average ski seasons (with snowmaking) in the 2000-2019 period have shortened between 5.5 and 7.1 days. National direct economic losses associated with lost skier visits and increased snowmaking costs are estimated at US$252 million annually. For the 2050s, regional ski seasons are projected to shorten between 14-33 days (low emissions) and 27-62 days (high emissions). The associated national direct economic losses range from US$657 to 1352 million annually. Climate change is an evolving business reality for the US ski industry. The economic damage already done is clear and the extent of future damages is dependent on the success of Paris Climate Agreement.