Abstract
Soybean is a global crop with significant environmental externalities. However, as an agricultural system, it is also vulnerable to extreme events associated with climate change, such as droughts. Nevertheless, there is a gap in the literature regarding how these extreme events can influence the carbon footprint of soybean production. To better understand the climate implications of soybean production, this study assessed and compared the carbon footprint in the Paraná State, Brazil, during the 2020|21 super harvest and the 2021|22 rainfall scarcity. The method of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and the cradle-to-gate perspective were applied using the ImpactWorld+ for Continental Latin America v.1.251 method to calculate the climate change impacts. The uncertainties of short and long-term climate impacts were calculated by the Monte Carlo simulation. The results showed that the carbon footprint of the 2021|22 harvest was 267% greater than that of the 2020|21 harvest, while the 2020|21 production was 86% greater than that of 2021|22. The reduction in productivity observed in 2021|22 soybean crop contributed the most to the long-term climate impacts and impacts on ecosystems and human health. The study showcased the significant short-term impact of climate change on soybean production but also its equally considerable, long-term impact on global food security.
•The study showcases the impact of drought on soybean production.•The 2020.|21 (super crop) and 2021|22 (drought-impacted) soybean crops are compared.•Drought contributed to the 267% increase in the carbon footprint of the 21.|22 crop.•The drop in agricultural productivity caused by droughts worsens food insecurity.•High soybean productivity leads to low emissions from land use change.