Abstract
Climate change is an evolving business reality in the ski industry, with recent trends toward shorter ski seasons and emerging climate risk disclosure requirements. Climate change impacts under low- to high-emission futures are examined at 99 ski areas in the American Midwest market with snowmaking. Mid-century season losses range from −25% in a low-emission scenario (SSP245), to −29% under moderate-emissions (SSP370), and − 38% with high-emissions (SSP585). Depending on demand response, utilization intensity could increase between 23 and 40% from the current 4.8 skiers/per acre-day with implications for crowding and visitor experience at ski areas still in operation. Highlighting the importance of low-emission futures, by late-century, transformational impacts in high-emission scenarios would largely eliminate this regional market. The results are compared with previous studies that neglected snowmaking as a climate risk management strategy and thereby substantially overestimated the impact of mid-century and low-emission scenarios.
•Snowmaking is an important climate change adaptation for the Midwest ski industry.•Successful Paris Agreement emission futures reduce mid-century ski seasons 25%.•High emission futures largely eliminate this regional ski market in late century.•Past studies that omit snowmaking overestimate ski industry climate risk.•Snowmaking is maladaptive in states with carbon-intensive electricity grids.