Abstract
Climate change risk has gained considerable attention within the ski industry and its investors. Several past studies have overlooked the adaptive capacity of snowmaking and within-season demand variation and therefore overestimated climate change impacts. This study of the Austrian ski market (208 ski areas) including snowmaking found impacts are substantial and spatially highly differentiated, but nonetheless manageable (season length losses of 10–16%) for the majority of ski areas until the 2050s under a high emissions pathway (RCP 8.5) or even the 2080s in a low emission pathway (RCP 4.5). The economic impacts of reduced operations are largely concentrated in regions less dependent on tourism. Preserving this sector in high-risk areas can be considered maladaptive, but may be important to maintain demand. A sustainable end-of-century future for a high proportion of Austria's ski areas is dependent on achieving the low-emission future set out in the Paris Climate Agreement.
•The severity of projected climate change impacts depends on the ski industry performance indicators used.•The critical importance of snowmaking as a climate adaptation to reduce climate risk is demonstrated.•Projected climate change impacts are spatially highly diverse and highest in less-winter tourism dependent municipalities.•Destination competitiveness and reputation will be affected, with consequences for shareholders and public authorities.•Greater snowmaking is required to preserve ski season length and analysis of water access and storage should be a priority.