Quantifying risks and interventions that have affected the burden of lower respiratory infections among children younger than 5 years: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Christopher E. Troeger; Ibrahim A. Khalil; Brigette F. Blacker; Molly H. Biehl; Samuel B. Albertson; Stephanie R. M. Zimsen; Puja C. Rao; Degu Abate; Amha Admasie; Alireza Ahmadi; Mohamed Lemine Cheikh Brahim Ahmed; Chalachew Genet Akal; Fares Alahdab; Noore Alam; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Vahid Alipour; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Saeed Amini; Mina Anjomshoa; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Jalal Arabloo; Olatunde Aremu; Hagos Tasew Atalay; Suleman Atique; Euripide F. G. A. Avokpaho; Samah Awad; Ashish Awasthi; Alaa Badawi; Kalpana Balakrishnan; Joseph Adel Mattar Banoub; Aleksandra Barac; Quique Bassat; Neeraj Bedi; Derrick A. Bennett; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Zulfiqar A. Bhutta; Ali Bijani; Corey B. Bills; Josip Car; Felix Carvalho; Carlos A. Castaneda-Orjuela; Kate Causey; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Aaron J. Cohen; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Ahmad Daryani; Feleke Mekonnen Demeke; Shirin Djalalinia; Manisha Dubey; Eleonora Dubljanin; Eyasu Ejeta Duken; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Aman Yesuf Endries; Eduarda Fernandes; Florian Fischer; Joseph Frostad; Nancy Fullman; William M. Gardner; Birhanu Geta; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Giuseppe Gorini; Alessandra C. Goulart; Yuming Guo; Gessessew Bugssa Hailu; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Arya Haj-Mirzaian; Samer Hamidi; Hamid Yimam Hassen; Chi Linh Hoang; Nobuyuki Horita; Mihaela Hostiuc; Zakir Hussain; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Spencer L. James; Ravi Prakash Jha; Jost B. Jonas; Andre Karch; Amir Kasaeian; Tesfaye Dessale Kassa; Nicholas J. Kassebaum; Adane Teshome Kefale; Yousef Saleh Khader; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Gulfaraz Khan; Md Nuruzzaman Khan; Young-Ho Khang; Abdullah T. Khoja; Ruth W. Kimokoti; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Niranjan Kissoon; Luke D. Knibbs; Sonali Kochhar; Soewarta Kosen; Parvaiz A. Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; G. Anil Kumar; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Cheru Tesema Leshargie; Sonia Lewycka; Shanshan Li; Rakesh Lodha; Erlyn Rachelle King Macarayan; Marek Majdan; Abdullah A. Mamun; Helena Manguerra; Varshil Mehta; Addisu Melese; Ziad A. Memish; Desalegn Tadese Mengistu; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Tomislav Mestrovic; Bartosz Miazgowski; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Babak Moazen; Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad; Shafiu Mohammed; Lorenzo Monasta; Catrin E. Moore; Lidia Morawska; Jonathan F. Mosser; Seyyed Meysam Mousavi; Srinivas Murthy; Ghulam Mustafa; Javad Nazari; Cuong Tat Nguyen; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Long Hoang Nguyen; Son Hoang Nguyen; Katie R. Nielsen; Muhammad Imran Nisar; Molly R. Nixon; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; Anselm Okoro; Andrew T. Olagunju; Tinuke O. Olagunju; Eyal Oren; Justin R. Ortiz; P. A. Mahesh; Smita Pakhale; Maarten J. Postma; Mostafa Qorbani; Reginald Quansah; Alireza Rafiei; Fakher Rahim; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Rajesh Kumar Rai; Marissa Bettay Reitsma; Mohammad Sadegh Rezai; Aziz Rezapour; Maria Jesus Rios-Blancas; Luca Ronfani; Dietrich Rothenbacher; Salvatore Rubino; Zikria Saleem; Evanson Zondani Sambala; Abdallah M. Samy; Milena M. Santric Milicevic; Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suarez; Benn Sartorius; Miloje Savic; Monika Sawhney; Sonia Saxena; Alyssa Sbarra; Seyedmojtaba Seyedmousavi; Masood Ali Shaikh; Aziz Sheikh; Mika Shigematsu; David L. Smith; Chandrashekhar T. Sreeramareddy; Jeffrey D. Stanaway; Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Belay Tessema; Bach Xuan Tran; Khanh Bao Tran; Afewerki Gebremeskel Tsadik; Irfan Ullah; Rachel L. Updike; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Yousef Veisani; Fiseha Wadilo Wada; Yasir Waheed; Katie Welgan; Kirsten E. Wiens; Charles Shey Wiysonge; Ebrahim M. Yimer; Naohiro Yonemoto; Zoubida Zaidi; Heather J. Zar; Stephen S. Lim; Theo Vos; Ali H. Mokdad; Christopher J. L. Murray; Hmwe Hmwe Kyu; Simon I. Hay; Robert C. Reiner; GBD Lower Resp Infect

doi:10.1016/S1473-3099(19)30410-4

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Quantifying risks and interventions that have affected the burden of lower respiratory infections among children younger than 5 years: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

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Quantifying risks and interventions that have affected the burden of lower respiratory infections among children younger than 5 years: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Christopher E. Troeger, Ibrahim A. Khalil, Brigette F. Blacker, Molly H. Biehl, Samuel B. Albertson, Stephanie R. M. Zimsen, Puja C. Rao, Degu Abate, Amha Admasie, Alireza Ahmadi, …

The Lancet infectious diseases, Vol.20(1), pp.60-79

31/01/2020

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(19)30410-4

PMCID: PMC7185492

PMID: 31678026

Abstract

Infectious Diseases

Life Sciences & Biomedicine

Science & Technology

Background Despite large reductions in under-5 lower respiratory infection (LRI) mortality in many locations, the pace of progress for LRIs has generally lagged behind that of other childhood infectious diseases. To better inform programmes and policies focused on preventing and treating LRIs, we assessed the contributions and patterns of risk factor attribution, intervention coverage, and sociodemographic development in 195 countries and territories by drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) LRI estimates. Methods We used four strategies to model LRI burden: the mortality due to LRIs was modelled using vital registration data, demographic surveillance data, and verbal autopsy data in a predictive ensemble modelling tool; the incidence of LRIs was modelled using population representative surveys, health-care utilisation data, and scientific literature in a compartmental meta-regression tool; the attribution of risk factors for LRI mortality was modelled in a counterfactual framework; and trends in LRI mortality were analysed applying changes in exposure to risk factors over time. In GBD, infectious disease mortality, including that due to LRI, is among HIV-negative individuals. We categorised locations based on their burden in 1990 to make comparisons in the changing burden between 1990 and 2017 and evaluate the relative percent change in mortality rate, incidence, and risk factor exposure to explain differences in the health loss associated with LRIs among children younger than 5 years. Findings In 2017, LRIs caused 808 920 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 747 286-873 591) in children younger than 5 years. Since 1990, there has been a substantial decrease in the number of deaths (from 2 337 538 to 808 920 deaths; 65.4% decrease, 61.5-68.5) and in mortality rate (from 362.7 deaths [3304-392.0] per 100 000 children to 118.9 deaths [109.8-128.3] per 100 000 children; 67.2% decrease, 63.5-70.1). LRI incidence dedined globally (32.4% decrease, 27.2-37.5). The percent change in under-5 mortality rate and incidence has varied across locations. Among the risk factors assessed in this study, those responsible for the greatest decrease in under-5 LRI mortality between 1990 and 2017 were increased coverage of vaccination against Haemophilus influenza type b (11.4% decrease, 0.0-24.5), increased pneumococcal vaccine coverage (6.3% decrease, 6.1-6.3), and reductions in household air pollution (8.4%, 6 8-9.2). Interpretation Our findings show that there have been substantial but uneven declines in LRI mortality among countries between 1990 and 2017. Although improvements in indicators of sociodemographic development could explain some of these trends, changes in exposure to modifiable risk factors are related to the rates of decline in LRI mortality. No single intervention would universally accelerate reductions in health loss associated with LRIs in all settings, but emphasising the most dominant risk factors, particularly in countries with high case fatality, can contribute to the reduction of preventable deaths. Copyright (C) 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.

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Title: Quantifying risks and interventions that have affected the burden of lower respiratory infections among children younger than 5 years: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Creators: Christopher E. Troeger - University of Washington
Ibrahim A. Khalil - University of Washington
Brigette F. Blacker - University of Washington
Molly H. Biehl - University of Washington
Samuel B. Albertson - University of Washington
Stephanie R. M. Zimsen - University of Washington
Puja C. Rao - University of Washington
Degu Abate - Haramaya University
Amha Admasie - Wolaita Sodo University
Alireza Ahmadi - College Station Medical Center
Mohamed Lemine Cheikh Brahim Ahmed - Univ Mohammed 5, Dept Biol, Rabat, Morocco
Chalachew Genet Akal - Bahir Dar University
Fares Alahdab - Mayo Clin, Fdn Med Educ & Res, Evidence Based Practice Ctr, Rochester, MN USA
Noore Alam - Queensland Hlth, Prevent Div, Herston, Qld, Australia
Kefyalew Addis Alene - University of Gondar
Vahid Alipour - College Station Medical Center
Syed Mohamed Aljunid - Kuwait University
Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi - King Abdulaziz University
Nelson Alvis-Guzman - University of Cartagena
Saeed Amini - Arak University
Mina Anjomshoa - College Station Medical Center
Carl Abelardo T. Antonio - University of the Philippines Manila
Jalal Arabloo - College Station Medical Center
Olatunde Aremu - Birmingham City University
Hagos Tasew Atalay - Aksum University
Suleman Atique - University of Lahore
Euripide F. G. A. Avokpaho - Benin Clin Res Inst, Abomey Calavi, Benin
Samah Awad - Jordan Univ Sci & Technol, Dept Pediat & Neonatol, Ramtha, Jordan
Ashish Awasthi - Indian Inst Publ Hlth, Gandhinagar, India
Alaa Badawi - Publ Hlth Agcy Canada, Publ Hlth Risk Sci Div, Toronto, ON, Canada
Kalpana Balakrishnan - College Station Medical Center
Joseph Adel Mattar Banoub - Alexandria University
Aleksandra Barac - Clin Ctr Serbia, Clin Infect & Trop Dis, Belgrade, Serbia
Quique Bassat - Universitat de Barcelona
Neeraj Bedi - College Station Medical Center
Derrick A. Bennett - University of Oxford
Krittika Bhattacharyya - Natl Inst Biomed Genom, Dept Stat & Computat Genom, Kalyani, W Bengal, India
Zulfiqar A. Bhutta - University of Toronto
Ali Bijani - College Station Medical Center
Corey B. Bills - College Station Medical Center
Josip Car - Nanyang Technol Univ, Ctr Populat Hlth Sci, Singapore, Singapore
Felix Carvalho - Universidade do Porto
Carlos A. Castaneda-Orjuela - Natl Inst Hlth, Colombian Natl Hlth Observ, Bogota, Colombia
Kate Causey - University of Washington
Devasahayam J. Christopher - College Station Medical Center
Aaron J. Cohen - University of Washington
Lalit Dandona - University of Washington
Rakhi Dandona - University of Washington
Ahmad Daryani - College Station Medical Center
Feleke Mekonnen Demeke - Bahir Dar University
Shirin Djalalinia - College Station Medical Center
Manisha Dubey - World Food Programme
Eleonora Dubljanin - University of Belgrade
Eyasu Ejeta Duken - Wollega University
Maysaa El Sayed Zaki - Mansoura University
Aman Yesuf Endries - Millennium Engineering and Integration
Eduarda Fernandes - Universidade do Porto
Florian Fischer - Bielefeld University
Joseph Frostad - University of Washington
Nancy Fullman - University of Washington
William M. Gardner - University of Washington
Birhanu Geta - Wollo University
Keyghobad Ghadiri - College Station Medical Center
Giuseppe Gorini - Florence
Alessandra C. Goulart - University of Sao Paulo
Yuming Guo - Monash University
Gessessew Bugssa Hailu - Mekelle University
Arvin Haj-Mirzaian - University of Tehran
Arya Haj-Mirzaian - University of Tehran
Samer Hamidi - Hamdan Bin Mohammed Smart University
Hamid Yimam Hassen - Mizan Tepi University
Chi Linh Hoang - Trường ĐH Nguyễn Tất Thành
Nobuyuki Horita - Yokohama City University
Mihaela Hostiuc - College Station Medical Center
Zakir Hussain - Dept Hlth, Prov TB Control Program, Gilgit, Pakistan
Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani - University of Tehran
Spencer L. James - University of Washington
Ravi Prakash Jha - Banaras Hindu University
Jost B. Jonas - Heidelberg University
Andre Karch - University of Münster
Amir Kasaeian - University of Tehran
Tesfaye Dessale Kassa - Mekelle University
Nicholas J. Kassebaum - University of Washington
Adane Teshome Kefale - Mizan Tepi University
Yousef Saleh Khader - College Station Medical Center
Ejaz Ahmad Khan - Biostat
Gulfaraz Khan - United Arab Emirates University
Md Nuruzzaman Khan - Jatiya Kabi Kazi Nazrul Islam University
Young-Ho Khang - Seoul Natl Univ, Dept Hlth Policy & Management, Seoul, South Korea
Abdullah T. Khoja - Johns Hopkins University
Ruth W. Kimokoti - Simmons Coll, Dept Nutr, Boston, MA 02115 USA
Adnan Kisa - Kristiania Univ Coll, Dept Hlth Management & Hlth Econ, Oslo, Norway
Sezer Kisa - Oslo Metropolitan Univ, Nursing & Hlth Promot, Oslo, Norway
Niranjan Kissoon - University of British Columbia
Luke D. Knibbs - University of Queensland
Sonali Kochhar - University of Washington
Soewarta Kosen
Parvaiz A. Koul - College Station Medical Center
Ai Koyanagi - Catalan Inst Res & Adv Studies, Barcelona, Spain
Barthelemy Kuate Defo - Université de Montréal
G. Anil Kumar - Publ Hlth Fdn India, Gurugram, India
Dharmesh Kumar Lal - Publ Hlth Fdn India, Gurugram, India
Cheru Tesema Leshargie - Debre Markos University
Sonia Lewycka - University of Oxford
Shanshan Li - Monash University
Rakesh Lodha - College Station Medical Center
Erlyn Rachelle King Macarayan - University of the Philippines Manila
Marek Majdan - Trnava Univ, Dept Publ Hlth, Trnava, Slovakia
Abdullah A. Mamun - University of Queensland
Helena Manguerra - University of Washington
Varshil Mehta - College Station Medical Center
Addisu Melese - Bahir Dar University
Ziad A. Memish - Minist Hlth, Res Dept, Prince Mohammed Bin Abdulaziz Hosp, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
Desalegn Tadese Mengistu - Mekelle University
Tuomo J. Meretoja - Helsinki Univ Hosp, Breast Surg Unit, Helsinki, Finland
Tomislav Mestrovic - Dr Zora Profozic Polyclin, Clin Microbiol & Parasitol Unit, Zagreb, Croatia
Bartosz Miazgowski - College Station Medical Center
Erkin M. Mirrakhimov - College Station Medical Center
Babak Moazen - Heidelberg Univ, Inst Publ Hlth, Mannheim, Germany
Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad - Salahaddin Univ, Dept Biol, Erbil, Iraq
Shafiu Mohammed - Heidelberg Univ, Inst Publ Hlth, Mannheim, Germany
Lorenzo Monasta - Burlo Garofolo Inst Maternal & Child Hlth, Clin Epidemiol & Publ Hlth Res Unit, Trieste, Italy
Catrin E. Moore - University of Oxford
Lidia Morawska - Queensland University of Technology
Jonathan F. Mosser - University of Washington
Seyyed Meysam Mousavi - University of Tehran
Srinivas Murthy - University of British Columbia
Ghulam Mustafa - College Station Medical Center
Javad Nazari - Arak University
Cuong Tat Nguyen - Duy Tan University
Huong Lan Thi Nguyen - Duy Tan University
Long Hoang Nguyen - Trường ĐH Nguyễn Tất Thành
Son Hoang Nguyen - Trường ĐH Nguyễn Tất Thành
Katie R. Nielsen - University of Washington
Muhammad Imran Nisar - Aga Khan Univ, Dept Pediat & Child Hlth, Karachi, Pakistan
Molly R. Nixon - University of Washington
Felix Akpojene Ogbo - Western Sydney University
Anselm Okoro - Soc Family Hlth Nigeria, Dept Res Measurement & Results, Abuja, Nigeria
Andrew T. Olagunju - McMaster University
Tinuke O. Olagunju - McMaster University
Eyal Oren - University of Washington
Justin R. Ortiz - University of Washington
P. A. Mahesh - JSS Academy of Higher Education and Research
Smita Pakhale - College Station Medical Center
Maarten J. Postma - University of Groningen
Mostafa Qorbani - College Station Medical Center
Reginald Quansah - University of Ghana
Alireza Rafiei - College Station Medical Center
Fakher Rahim - University of Tehran
Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar - University of Tehran
Rajesh Kumar Rai - Soc Hlth & Demog Surveillance, Suri, India
Marissa Bettay Reitsma - University of Washington
Mohammad Sadegh Rezai - College Station Medical Center
Aziz Rezapour - College Station Medical Center
Maria Jesus Rios-Blancas - Natl Inst Publ Hlth, Ctr Hlth Syst Res, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico
Luca Ronfani - Burlo Garofolo Inst Maternal & Child Hlth, Clin Epidemiol & Publ Hlth Res Unit, Trieste, Italy
Dietrich Rothenbacher - College Station Medical Center
Salvatore Rubino - University of Sassari
Zikria Saleem - Rashid Latif Coll Pharm, Lahore, Pakistan
Evanson Zondani Sambala - South African Med Res Council, Cochrane South Africa, Cape Town, South Africa
Abdallah M. Samy - Ain Shams University
Milena M. Santric Milicevic - University of Belgrade
Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suarez - College Station Medical Center
Benn Sartorius - University of Washington
Miloje Savic - GSK Biol, Wavre, Belgium
Monika Sawhney - Univ N Carolina, Dept Publ Hlth Sci, Charlotte, NC USA
Sonia Saxena - Supreme Council Of Health
Alyssa Sbarra - University of Washington
Seyedmojtaba Seyedmousavi - College Station Medical Center
Masood Ali Shaikh
Aziz Sheikh - Harvard University
Mika Shigematsu - Natl Inst Infect Dis, Tokyo, Japan
David L. Smith - University of Washington
Chandrashekhar T. Sreeramareddy - College Station Medical Center
Jeffrey D. Stanaway - University of Washington
Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan - Ahmadu Bello University
Mohamad-Hani Temsah - Alfaisal University
Belay Tessema - University of Gondar
Bach Xuan Tran - College Station Medical Center
Khanh Bao Tran - University of Auckland
Afewerki Gebremeskel Tsadik - Mekelle University
Irfan Ullah - Gomal Univ, Gomal Ctr Biochem & Biotechnol, Dera Ismail Khan, Pakistan
Rachel L. Updike - University of Washington
Tommi Juhani Vasankari - UKK Inst, Tampere, Finland
Yousef Veisani - Ilam University
Fiseha Wadilo Wada - Wolaita Sodo University
Yasir Waheed - College Station Medical Center
Katie Welgan - University of Washington
Kirsten E. Wiens - University of Washington
Charles Shey Wiysonge - South African Med Res Council, Cochrane South Africa, Cape Town, South Africa
Ebrahim M. Yimer - Mekelle University
Naohiro Yonemoto - Natl Ctr Neurol & Psychiat, Dept Psychopharmacol, Tokyo, Japan
Zoubida Zaidi - Univ Hosp Setif, Dept Epidemiol, Setif, Algeria
Heather J. Zar - University of Cape Town
Stephen S. Lim - University of Washington
Theo Vos - University of Washington
Ali H. Mokdad - University of Washington
Christopher J. L. Murray - University of Washington
Hmwe Hmwe Kyu - University of Washington
Simon I. Hay - University of Washington
Robert C. Reiner - University of Washington
GBD Lower Resp Infect
Publication Details: The Lancet infectious diseases, Vol.20(1), pp.60-79
Publisher: Elsevier
Number of pages: 20
Date published: 31/01/2020
Grant note: Health Effects Institute, Boston, MA, USA Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; CGIAR III45005 / Project of Ministry of Education, Science and Technology of the Republic of Serbia UID/QUI/50006/2019; UID/MULTI/04378/2019 / Foundation for Science and Technology/Minister of Science, Technology, and Higher Education Department of Science and Technology, Government of India (New Delhi, India) through the INSPIRE Faculty program 175087 / Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development, Republic of Serbia Egyptian Fulbright Mission Program (EFMP) Health Data Research UK Public Health Agency of Canada Applied and Environmental Sciences University (Bogota, Colombia)
Identifiers: 99777874902346
Academic Unit: School of Sustainability, Civil and Environmental Engineering
Language: English
Resource Type: Journal article

Quantifying risks and interventions that have affected the burden of lower respiratory infections among children younger than 5 years: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

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