Abstract
With the development of industrialization and urbanization, the water scarcity crisis is among the most critical problems faced by many countries in the 21st century. Investigating the flow processes and induced impacts of classified water resources in complex systems from multiple perspectives can improve the mismatch between limited water resources and economic development. In this study, a water-economy nexus model (WENM) is developed to examine the carrying capacity and economic value of virtual water and direct water in 31 regions of mainland China from the driving relationships of the production-side and the consumption-side. It is found that the regions with high water stresses were concentrated in the economically developed eastern and southern coastal areas. Undeveloped regions with production advantages tend to export large amounts of water-intensive products to economically developed regions with consumption advantages. In order to increase economic benefits and avoid aggravation of water scarcity, efforts should be made to improve the production capacity of developed regions, the consumption capacity of underdeveloped regions, and the water use efficiency. The dependency of China on virtual water is generally lower than that of direct water, but virtual water flow can provide higher economic value. It is necessary to strengthen the multilateral economy among regions and try to reduce dependency on direct water. Policymakers should prioritize the allocation of water resources to regions that have significant economic value for water flows but high-water dependency. Therefore, a quantitative analysis of the water-economy nexus can provide scientific references for water resource management policies from multiple perspectives.
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•A water-economy nexus model is tailor-made for searching the related deep relationship.•Economic effect of water scarcity is quantified.•Performance of direct water and virtual water are fostered to analysis water balance.•Regional water carrying capacity and water economic value are explored.•Different driving relationships of water metabolic network are investigated.