Abstract
This paper investigates the challenging fault prediction problem in process industries that adopt autonomous and intelligent cyber-physical systems (CPS), which is in line with the emerging developments of industrial internet of things (IIoT) and Industry 4.0. Particularly, we developed an end-to-end deep learning approach based on a large volume of real-time sensory data collected from a chemical plant equipped with wireless sensors. Firstly, a novel recursive architecture with multi-lookback inputs is proposed to perform autoregression on imbalanced time-series data as a preliminary prediction. In this process, a novel learning algorithm named recursive gradient descent (RGD) is developed for the proposed architecture to reduce cumulative prediction uncertainties. Subsequently, a classification model based on temporal convolutions over multiple channels with decay effect is proposed to perform multi-class classification for fault root cause identification and localization. The overall network is named the cumulative uncertainty reduction network (CURNet), for its superior capacity in reducing prediction uncertainties accumulated over multiple prediction steps. Performance evaluations show that CURNet is able to achieve superior performance especially in terms of fault prediction recall and fault type classification accuracy, compared to the existing techniques.