Abstract
High-energy trapped electrons in the Van Allen belts pose a threat to the survivability of orbiting spacecraft. Two key radiation effects are total ionizing dose and displacement damage dose in components and materials, both of which cause cumulative and largely irreversible damage. During an extreme space weather event, trapped electron fl uxes in the Van Allen belts can increase by several orders of magnitude in intensity, leading to an enhanced risk of satellite failure. We use extreme environments generated by modeling and statistical analyses to estimate the consequences for satellites in terms of the radiation effects described above. A worst-case event could lead to signi fi cant losses in power generating capability — up to almost 8% — and cause up to four years ’ worth of ionizing dose degradation, leading to component damage and a life-shortening effect on satellites. The consequences of such losses are hugely signi fi cant given our increasing reliance on satellites for a vast array of services, including communication, navigation, defense, and critical infrastructure.