Abstract
Open Radio Access Network (Open RAN) promises to dismantle traditional vendor lock-in through disaggregation and standardization. This article analyzes its current trajectory, finding that the ecosystem is not evolving toward universal interoperability but is instead consolidating into islands of interoperability or pre-validated multi-vendor clusters that risk becoming new forms of lock-in. Through a review of global deployments and industry collaboration patterns, we examine the technical and market forces that may contribute to this fragmentation. We argue that while these islands represent a pragmatic compromise that increases operator choice, they also pose a significant long-term risk to the open ecosystem by stifling innovation and competition. Ultimately, we conclude that avoiding permanent fragmentation is not a technical challenge alone but a strategic imperative. It requires a concerted shift from writing standards to enforcing rigorous, transparent certification and fostering a market that rewards true interoperability over closed partnerships. The future of Open RAN depends on building bridges between these islands to preserve its foundational promise.