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Uncertainty Quantification for Acoustic-Based Drone Detection and Localization under Adverse Noise Conditions
Conference proceeding   Open access   Peer reviewed

Uncertainty Quantification for Acoustic-Based Drone Detection and Localization under Adverse Noise Conditions

Özkan Çayli, Pei Xiao and Wenwu Wang
European Signal Processing Conference, 34 (Bruges, Belgium, 31/08/2026–04/09/2026)
11/05/2026

Abstract

out-of-distribution detection low-SNR acoustic sensing Acoustic drone localization uncertainty quantification

Drone detection and localization (DDL) aims to identify and track aerial targets using sensors. This is crucial for several potential applications, such as surveillance, security, and safety-critical monitoring. Recent advances in uncertainty-aware deep learning have made reliable DDL increasingly viable. However, achieving both accurate predictions and trustworthy uncertainty estimates remains challenging under low signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs) and when distinguishing valid targets from noise-only failure cases. In this paper, we introduce two complementary uncertainty-aware frameworks for acoustic DDL based on conformal prediction and evidential learning, which provide distribution-free coverage guarantees and model-based uncertainty decomposition, respectively. We further compare their localization performance against a heteroscedastic regression baseline. Our results demonstrate that while conformal prediction reliably guarantees statistical coverage, evidential learning excels in correlating uncertainty with prediction error. However, analysis of noise-only inputs reveals that distinguishing valid targets from failure cases remains a critical challenge, as models tend to retain high confidence even on out-of-distribution data. These findings highlight the necessity of combining uncertainty methods to build robust DDL systems.

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