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Automatic workout mortgage and housing consumption choice - Conference on Real Estate, Household, and ESG Finance - Yokohama National University - Japan - June 2025
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Automatic workout mortgage and housing consumption choice - Conference on Real Estate, Household, and ESG Finance - Yokohama National University - Japan - June 2025

Robert Shiller, Rafal Maciej Wojakowski, M Shahid Ebrahim and Mark Shackleton
Nippon Finance Association
International Review of Finance 2025 Conference and Special Issue on Real Estate, Household, and ESG Finance (Yokohama, Japan, 14/06/2025–15/06/2025)
15/06/2025

Abstract

Risk-robust Mortgage Retirement Policy House Price Index Insurance Pensions Welfare Affordability Indexation Underwater

This paper further develops the Automatic Workout Mortgage (AWM) which embeds an insurance put option to reduce negative equity, systemic risk, and promote economic recovery. We introduce a mathematical model showing that AWM raises household utility and increases housing demand. Without AWM, households stabilize at about 40% equity when considering reverse mortgages; with AWM, demand peaks at 80%. The insurance feature lowers precautionary saving, making housing more attractive to risk-averse borrowers. AWM boosts expected utility by roughly 33% of optimal housing consumption without AWM and protects home equity, improving future housing affordability and retirement-phase resilience.

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SlidesYokohama Conference - June 2025 - slide deckCC BY-NC-ND V4.0 Open Access
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https://en.nfa-net.jp/2025/05/02/international-review-of-finance-2025-conference/View
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