Abstract
While global demand for milk and dairy products grows, the number of dairy farms in the United Kingdom has fallen by 56% in the last 20 years, coupled with a decline in cows and farmers' numbers. Research has explored a wide range of factors impacting dairy farmers' decision to leave the industry early; however, these factors are collated from a diversity of individual studies, and we lack a comprehensive understanding of what individual factors are more prominent in driving dairy farmers' decision and how factors may interplay within a single study context. To address this gap, we utilised an explanatory sequential mixed-methods research design, including a questionnaire (n = 335) followed by in-depth interviews (n = 21) with current and former dairy farmers in the UK. Findings identified a complex interplay among Profitability, Compliance and Regulation, Milk Price, Investments, Mental Health, Physical Health, Availability of Labour, Animal Welfare, Anti-dairy Sentiment, Succession, Milk Contracts, Climate Change, and Family Pressures. Our paper contributes to existing literature in three ways. First, we offer a comprehensive overview of the factors influencing dairy farmers’ intention to leave the industry early; second, we discuss how these factors interrelate dynamically, providing a model of the phenomenon highlighting the central role of control, autonomy, and self-efficacy; third, we provide insights on a fruitful empirical context, as the UK context captures current European trends on dairy farm exit and includes a diversity of farm types found across different geographic contexts, increasing the wider applicability of findings.
•The dairy industry is key in providing food security, but the numbers of dairy farmers and workers in the UK and EU are falling.•We lack a comprehensive understanding of what factors are more prominent in driving dairy farmers' decision to leave the industry and how factors interplay dynamically.•Findings identify the importance of different factors impacting farmers' decision to leave the industry in the UK, exacerbated by perceived stress and negative health outcomes.•Our DRIVE model highlights a complex interplay among exit factors, underscored by lack of control, lack of autonomy, and low self-efficacy.