Logo image
Monitoring joint tail risks: An application to growth and inflation
Journal article   Peer reviewed

Monitoring joint tail risks: An application to growth and inflation

Valentina Corradi and Jordi Llorens-Terrazas
Journal of econometrics, Vol.255, p.106237
05/2026

Abstract

GIaR Iso-Curve Joint exceedance Location-Scale Stagflation Worst-case scenario

This paper develops the concept of Growth and Inflation at Risk frontier (GIaR). This is a bivariate generalisation of the concepts of Growth-at-Risk (GaR) and Inflation-at-Risk (IaR). We propose a novel approach to identify and estimate GIaR and provide uniformly valid upper and lower confidence bands. We first apply our procedure to predict the conditional probability of stagflation. Second, we compute worst-case scenarios for a policy maker who is concerned about the joint tail risk of low growth and high inflation, and we also study the effect that a tightening of financial conditions has on the joint tail risks.

Metrics

1 Record Views

Details

Logo image

Usage Policy