Abstract
Data is required to develop forecasting models for use in Model Predictive Control (MPC) schemes in building energy systems. However, data is costly to both collect and exploit. Determining cost optimal data usage strategies requires understanding of the forecast accuracy and resulting MPC operational performance it enables. This study investigates the performance of both simple and state-of-the-art machine learning prediction models for MPC in multi-building energy systems using a simulated case study with historic building energy data. The impact on forecast accuracy of measures to improve model data efficiency is quantified, specifically for: reuse of prediction models, reduction of training data duration, reduction of model data features, and online model training. A simple linear multi-layer perceptron model is shown to provide equivalent forecast accuracy to state-of-the-art models, with greater data efficiency and generalisability. The use of more than 2 years of training data for load prediction models provided no significant improvement in forecast accuracy. Forecast accuracy and data efficiency were improved simultaneously by using change-point analysis to screen training data. Reused models and those trained with 3 months of data had on average 10% higher error than baseline, indicating that deploying MPC systems without prior data collection may be economic.
•Forecasting models for MPC tested using energy system simulation with historic data.•Impact of data on forecast accuracy and MPC operational performance quantified.•Simple linear MLP model provides equivalent accuracy to state-of-the-art models.•More than 2 years of training data did not significantly improve forecast accuracy.•Screening training data using change-points improves accuracy and data efficiency.