Abstract
Significant increases to the atmospheric radiation environment are recorded by a network of ground level neutron monitors as ground level enhancements (GLEs). These space weather phenomena pose a risk to aviation via single event effects in aircraft electronics and ionizing dose to passengers and crew. Under the UK Space Weather Instrumentation, Measurement, Modeling and Risk programme, we have developed a new model to provide nowcasts of the aviation radiation environment, including both the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) background and during GLE events. The Model for Atmospheric Ionising Radiation Effects (MAIRE+) uses multiple data sources to characterize primary GCR and GLE particle spectra and combines these with precalculated geomagnetic and atmospheric response matrices to predict particle fluxes from ground level to 20 km altitude across the entire globe. Two European neutron monitors (located at Oulu in Finland and Dourbes in Belgium) are used as the primary indicators of GLE intensity in order to maximize accuracy over UK airspace. Outputs from MAIRE+ for the historical GLEs in September and October 1989 are compared to recalibrated empirical data from a solid‐state detector that was carried on Concorde in that period. The model will be hosted in the UK and will provide additional capability to the Met Office Space Weather Operations Center (MOSWOC).
Plain Language Summary
Ionizing radiation in the atmosphere is primarily caused by galactic cosmic rays (GCR) interacting with the upper atmosphere, creating showers of secondary radiation. At aviation altitudes the radiation environment is hundreds of times more intense than that experienced at the ground level. This relatively stable background level of radiation is punctuated by space weather events called ground level enhancements (GLEs), when energetic solar protons arrive at Earth and lead to elevated atmospheric radiation levels that can be orders of magnitude greater than background levels. Under the UK Space Weather Instrumentation, Measurement, Modeling and Risk programme, we have developed a new model to provide nowcasts of the aviation radiation environment, including both the GCR background and during GLE events. Through our Model for Atmospheric Ionising Radiation Effects, we show how data from ground level neutron monitors can be used to characterize the atmospheric radiation environment from ground level to 20 km altitude across the entire globe.
Key Points
The new Model for Atmospheric Ionising Radiation Effects (MAIRE+) is presented
MAIRE+ uses neutron monitor data, sunspot number, Kp, and geostationary proton flux to nowcast the aviation radiation environment
Model outputs are compared to data from a solid‐state detector carried on board Concorde during ground level enhancements in 1989