Abstract
Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) are anticipated to play a considerable role in society’s transition
to decarbonised transport. BEVs primarily use lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) to provide power,
however, there is a finite amount of lithium used in batteries within the earth’s crust. There is
therefore a risk that there is insufficient extractable lithium available to meet the expected surge
in demand for BEVs.
There are two aims for this study to address this concern. First, it ascertains how much lithium is
available for use, and that can be allocated to the United Kingdom (UK). Secondly, it calculates
how many BEVs are projected to be demanded by the UK to 2050. To achieve these aims, this
study combines estimates on the quantity of lithium in reserves with projections for BEV sales. It
addresses a gap in the research by considering the uncertainties in future BEV demand. In
achieving these aims, it establishes a ‘BEV lithium allocation’ (BEV-LA) and a total primary lithium
budget (TPLB) for the UK.
The study finds that in all three of its ‘scenario sets’, the amount of lithium in reserve allocated
to the UK is inadequate to meet the projected demand for BEVs without considerable rates of
lithium recycling to make up the shortfall. Based on these findings, several recommendations
are made on reducing the demand for lithium, and reducing the damage from the anticipated
high rates of lithium extraction