Abstract
At first glance, the relationship between hate groups and hate crime appears self-evident. However, there is surprisingly little empirical support for a direct connection between the two. This research investigates this relationship in the context of hate group emergence, exploring: i) the role of radicalisation in group emergence; ii) the impact of different theories of radicalisation on emergent group attributes and behaviours; and iii) what relationships we might then expect to see between hate crime and group affiliation.
The study uses agent-based modelling – a computational modelling methodology – to develop the VEnt (Violence, Entitativity) model of hate group emergence and violence using several candidate theories from within the social identity approach. Five theoretical scenarios were developed: i) optimal distinctiveness; ii) uncertainty-identity; iii) defection; iv) intragroup radicalisation; and v) intergroup radicalisation. Each was individually explored and validated using empirical data from a bespoke VEnt survey of hate group attributes.
Firstly, findings demonstrate the importance of radicalisation processes for the stability, but not initial emergence, of hate groups. Whilst hate groups successfully emerged under scenarios with no radicalisation, they did not behave consistently with the VEnt model’s underlying candidate theories and were prone to high membership turnover and mainstreaming (becoming less extreme) over a short period of time. Secondly, findings highlight group-mediated reciprocal radicalisation as a particularly plausible candidate mechanism for explaining the popularity and stability of hate groups. Under the intergroup radicalisation scenario, the VEnt model behaved most consistently with its underlying candidate theories and performed best at replicating empirical patterns from the VEnt survey data. Finally, the model illustrates the relevance of historical- and current group-affiliation to the commission of hate crimes. Exploration of violence using the VEnt model predicts higher proportions of group-affiliated, as opposed to lone actor, hate crimes as minority presence in a neighbourhood increases.