Abstract
This thesis is concerned with analysing the factors which influence the demand for meals bought away from home in the United Kingdom, forecasting their influence for the decade 1970-1980, and distinguishing the consequent implications for the catering industry. Divided into three main parts, each of which represents a different level of objectivity, it starts in econometric rigour, and proceeds through generality to the conjecture of production. The analysis begins with a summary of the industry, and methodology of family budget analysis, together with a review of previous work in the field as it relates to meals bought away from home. It continued by examining the available sources of suitable data and then applies the relevant techniques. Attention is then transferred to the time series data and a similar analysis essayed, but in this case, the nature of the information results in a different procedure being adopted and therefore a somewhat condensed examination. The resulting two approaches are then compared, and their quantitative relevance in forecasting discussed. Part Two commences with the acceptance that the econometric approach has limitations and that a less formal analysis should be followed. Nevertheless the dangers of leaving a well-defined theoretical framework are recognised and some attempt is there-fore made to structure the discussion. These attempts are how-ever not more subjective treatment. In Part Three the final level of abstraction is reached when the future is conjectured. Like all forecasting this section is necessarily suppositional, but to avoid any accusation of academic adventurism, the attempt has been made to contain the conjecture within specified limits. The thesis ends with a brief examination of the implications the forecasts hold for the catering industry, and some suggestions are made for future research.