Abstract
Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are increasingly attracting global attention. Replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy is a crucial path for the global energy system transition. Renewable energy transition is a complex and long-term process involving a wide range of social, economic, environmental, technological, and political factors. Bioenergy is an important potential renewable energy source. However, insufficient biomass supply has hindered the development of biomass-related industries. Aeroponics, a hydroponic technology, has the potential to rapidly cultivate woody biomass to increase biomass supply. Therefore, to reasonably assess the development potential of biomass energy, advanced methods are needed to simulate the impacts on various sectors of the socio-economic system. A series of methods are proposed to identify and assess the impacts of aeroponic technology on biomass supply and biomass allocation. The impact of the development of the biomass industry on the socio-economic system has also been assessed, which include economic effects, employment, social welfare and renewable energy sector output. In this thesis, aeroponic and conventional soil-based biomass cultivation technologies are systematically compared. Biomass utilisation pathways including co-firing, power generation and heating, are evaluated and optimised under diverse policy, economic and technological scenarios. An integrated modelling framework combining computable general equilibrium (CGE), techno-economic analysis and optimisation approaches is developed to comprehensively assess biomass development and aeroponic deployment within the UK energy system.
The main contribution of this thesis lies in proposing an innovative methodological framework that enables a comprehensive assessment of the socio-economic impacts of technological advancement, while simultaneously accounting for the inherent complexity of environmental and socio-economic systems, policy simulation requirements, and uncertainty reflection. All developed methods are national-level assessments and have been applied in the UK to verify their applicability and superiority. The results show that aeroponic deployment under polytunnel conditions can increase GDP by up to 10.7% by 2050, while renewable sector output rises by 14.8% under conservative scenarios. The findings also indicate that biomass-based heating delivers 2.2–6.4% higher socio-economic benefits than biomass-based power generation, and that aeroponic deployment can reduce natural gas consumption by 2.5–6.3%. The research results can provide a scientific basis for formulating policies related to renewable energy transition and biomass development.