Abstract
"This thesis uses Italian micro-level data to examine three issues in different strands of the Economics literature.
Chapter 1 investigates how contract conversions affect workers' well-being, by studying if individuals update consumption plans when they shift contractual regime. It shows that consumption increases following the transformation of a temporary contract. It also suggests that the consumption response to unemployment is less pronounced for temporary employees, who can anticipate the shock from the predetermined duration of their contract. The findings draw from the permanent income hypothesis and highlight the consumption implications of policies promoting stable employment.
Chapter 2 studies the relationship between popularity shocks and electoral accountability. It compares the electoral performance of mayors replaced by the central government as a result of a city council dismissal with that of mayors completing the term. It shows that voters reduce their support for candidates accountable for an early government termination. This effect becomes more pronounced
when I account for the positive self-selection of incumbents into new elections. The findings suggest that the value of information for appointing better politicians may be greater than what highlighted by previous studies.
Chapter 3 examines the effects of voting on COVID-19 spread by using the Italian elections held in September 2020 as case of study. It exploits the fact that in 36% of Italian municipalities citizens cast a ballot not only for a national-level referendum, but also for electing either the new regional governor or the new municipality mayor. This setting resulted in an exogenous increase in turnout where multiple polls took place. A control function approach in an event-study design shows that higher turnout was associated with a significant rise in post-poll
COVID-19 infections. The findings inform about the potential public health consequences of holding elections during peak periods of an epidemic."