Abstract
The main areas of study covered by this thesis are: 1. Analysis of the past performance of the market for new housebuilding, and projections of future activity, over the period 1977 to 1986, for the number and type of duelling completions. 2. Analysis of the usage of materials in new housebuilding and the factors which might promote or inhibit the substitution of materials. 3. Identification of areas in new housebuilding where further substitution might occur over the period 1977 to 1986. 4. Future demand for housebuilding materials based on the forecasts of completions and the usage of materials. New duelling completions over the next ten years are estimated to be at an annual average rate of 305,000, +/- 15,000, with maximum demand occurring during the two year period 1981/82. Activity between the private and public sectors will depend on the Government of the day. A Conservative administration will probably support the private sector and a Labour administration can be expected to lean more towards the public sector. Duelling types and sizes are not expected to show any marked change but there will probably be a tendency towards smaller units. The usage of materials in various duelling types has been identified and has been measured by the amount required for each 100 square metres of floor area constructed. Substitution of materials has been found to be determined by their initial costs. The cheaper the material the more likely it is to lead the market. The technical performance of a material and its cost in use are not considered to be the main factors which control substitution. Further substitution and innovation of materials will most likely take place through changes in the Building Regulations. Particularly important in this aspect are the regulations which control the thermal insulation of duellings. It is anticipated that before 1986 these regulations will be more stringent and this should give materials manufacturers the opportunity to innovate with new materials. Throughout the period 1977 to 1986 it is not thought that manufacturers of materials, for new housebuilding, will experience any difficulties in supplying the demand of the market. The only problem which might occur is if overall activity continues to decline and the capacity of the materials industries decreases to a point where it cannot quickly rise to meet an upsurge in demand. Should this happen, it is not expected that the difficulties will take very long to overcome.