Abstract
Oil producing countries of the Gulf are facing poten- tially very serious economic and social problems. The almost total dependence on a single raw material which is also depletable, carries with it considerable risks both in the short and long terms. The heavy dependence on imported heterogeneous labour which accounts for at least two thirds of the labour force could represent a threat to social harmony and political stability. Equally serious and related to the previous aspect is the high degree of under-utilization of the female component of the endogenous population. Given the complex nature of these problems and their by-products, and added to them the chronic problem of absorptive capacity limitations due to factoral, sectoral, financial and institutional imbalances given all these, the future could become very uncertain, unless "planned" action is taken now. This study focuses on the State of Kuwait, a country which suffers from all the problems stated above, and attempts to achieve two related objectives. The first is to attempt to propose a framework strategy for Development Planning in Kuwait up to the year 2000). Such a strategy aims to achieve a balanced economic base by strengthening the non oil domestic sector in preparation for the end of the oil era, and a balanced labour force-structure, thus strengthening social harmony and politicaI stability by gradual reduction of the foreign segment of the labour force, while activating and attempting to induce female Kuwaitis to join the labour force. Focusing on this latter aspect, the second objective of the study is to seek to improve our understanding of the important determinants of the female Kuwaitis "Commitment to Work", since it is on the basis of this understanding that a policy concerning this section of the labour force can realistically be implemented. In attempting to implement the first objective of the study, a long-term "perspective" planning model was specified and applied to the case of Kuwait. The model is a dynamic optimization, one with a quadratic objective function and non-linear constraints. Four powerful instruments were singled out investment in the non- oil domestic sector , changes in foreign labour, Kuwaiti female participation rate, and the price or output of crude. In dealing with the second objective of the study, a field-work approach was adopted. An inter-mail survey questionnaire was designed and distributed among a small sample of 500 Kuwaiti females. The questionnaire -based on economic theory - covered enabling, facilitating, and precipitating financial and attitudinal conditions in 45 questions and 3 appendicies covering 24 additional questions. The results were subjected to a thorough statistical analysis. Frequency distributions, cross-tabulations, and automatic interaction detection were first applied to deduce possible hypotheses and to identify homogenous groups in their labour behaviour. Then regression analysis was applied to a linear probability model of the determinants of Kuwaiti female "Commitment to Work". The outcome was, surprisingly, satisfactory. An aggregate model confirming a priori expections was derived, and models for ten homogenous groups were singled out. Gathering results of the two parts, Kuwait's strafe gic options are then discussed, policy, implications outlined, and suggestions for further research made.