Abstract
Characterisation of the urban expansion processes using time series of binary urban/non-urban land cover data is complex due to the need to account for the initial configuration and the rate of urban expansion over the analysed period. Failure to account for these factors makes the interpretation of landscape metrics for compactness, fragmentation, or clumpiness problematic and the comparison between geographical areas and time periods contentious. This paper presents an approach for characterisation using spatio-dynamic modelling which is data-centred using a process based model, Bayesian optimization, cluster identification, and maximum likelihood classification. An application of the approach across 652 functional urban areas in Europe (1975-2014) demonstrates the consistency of the approach and its ability to identify spatial and temporal trends in urban expansion processes.