Abstract
Phosphorus is an abundant resource, even though the most economically attractive reserves are geographically concentrated, so that whether and when production will peak are highly uncertain. However, analysis of the global use of phosphorus primarily in agriculture (including animal husbandry), reveals an exceptionally “leaky” supply chain: losses, including leaching from soils and animal excreta, amount to some 90% of the inputs. The potential for innovation to improve the efficiency of phosphorus use is therefore enormous, going beyond recovery of phosphorus from waste water to reducing the losses from the whole use system. Drivers to improve the system efficacy include the concerns over distribution and possibly security of supply and also the environmental impacts of phosphorus emissions. Future production, use and price of phosphorus therefore depend as much on changes in food consumption and agricultural practices as on changes in mining and processing.